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Is there something special about the human voice?
Catagory:Reading
Author:
Posted Date:11/26/2024
Posted By:utopia online

Artificial intelligence-powered speech synthesisers can now hold eerily realistic spoken conversations, putting on accents, whispering and even cloning the voices of others. So how can we tell them apart from the human voice? These days it's quite easy to strike up a conversation with AI. Ask a question of some chatbots, and they'll even provide an engaging response verbally. You can chat with them across multiple languages and request a reply in a particular dialect or accent. It is now even possible to use AI-powered speech cloning tools to replicate the voices of real humans. One was recently used to copy the voice of the late British broadcaster Sir Michael Parkinson to produce an eight-part podcast series while natural history broadcaster Sir David Attenborough was "profoundly disturbed" to hear his voice has been cloned by AI and used to say things he never uttered. In some cases the technology is being used in sophisticated scams to trick people into handing over money to criminals. Not all AI-generated voice are used for nefarious means. They are also being built into chatbots powered by large language models so they can hold respond and converse in a far more natural and convincing way. ChatGPT's voice function, for example, can now reply using variations of tone and emphasis on certain words in very similar ways that a human would to convey empathy and emotion. It can also pick up non-verbal cues such as sighs and sobs, speak in 50 languages and is able to render accents on the fly. It can even make phone calls on behalf of users to help with tasks. At one demonstration by OpenAI, the system ordered strawberries from a vendor. These capabilities raise an interesting question: is there anything unique about the human voice to help us distinguish it from robo-speech? Jonathan Harrington, a professor of phonetics and digital speech processing at the University of Munich, Germany, has spent decades studying the intricacies of how humans talk, produce the sounds of words and accents. Even he is impressed by the capabilities of AI-powered voice synthesisers."In the last 50 years, and especially recently, speech generation/synthesis systems have become so good that it is often very difficult to tell an AI-generated and a real voice apart," he says. But he believes there are still some important cues that can help us to tell if we are talking to a human or an AI. Before we get into that, however, we decided to set up a little challenge to see just how convincing an AI-generated voice could be compared to a human one. To do this we asked New York University Stern School of Business chief AI architect Conor Grennan to create pairs of audio clips reading out short segments of text. One was a passage from Lewis Carroll's classic tale, "Alice in Wonderland" read by Grennan and the other was an identical segment generated with an AI speech cloning tool from software company ElevenLabs. You can listen to them both below to see if you can tell the difference.Surprisingly, around half of the people we played the clips to couldn't tell which was which by ear. It's worth pointing out that our experiment was far from scientific and the clips weren't being listened to over high-end audio equipment – just typical laptop and smart phone speakers. Steve Grobman, who serves as the chief technology officer of cybersecurity company, McAfee, struggled to discern which voice was human and which was AI merely by listening with his ear. "There were definitely things beyond speech, like the inhalation which would have me go more towards human, but the cadence, balance, tonality would push me to AI," he says. For the untrained human ear, many of these things can be difficult to pick up. "Humans are very bad at this," says Grobman, explaining that deepfake detection software is helping catch things the human ear can miss. But it gets especially challenging when bad actors manipulate real audio with bits of fake audio, he says, pointing to a video of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates hawking a quantum AI stock trading tool. To the human ear, the audio sounded exactly like the tech billionaire, but running it through a scam classifier, it was flagged as a deepfake. McAfee recently highlighted how a fabricated advert used mixed deepfake and real audio of singer Taylor Swift. Grobman's tip: "Always listen to the context of what is being said, things that sound suspicious likely are." Another cybersecurity expert we spoke to – Pete Nicoletti, global chief information security officer of Check Point Software, a threat analysis platform – was also stumped by our "Alice in Wonderland" challenge. He says he usually listens for unnatural speech patterns such as irregular pauses and awkward phrasing when playing audio. Strange artefacts like distortions and mismatched background noise can also be a give-away. He also listens for limited variations in volume, cadence and tone because voices that are cloned from just a few seconds of audio may not have the full range of a human voice. "We live in a post-real society where AI generated voice clones can fool even the voice validation systems of credit card companies," Nicoletti says. "Turing would be turning over in his grave right now," referring to World War II British code breaker Alan Turing, who designed the "Turing Test" as a way to identify AI by engaging with it in conversation. Dane Sherrets, innovation architect of emerging technologies at HackerOne, a community of bug bounty hunters that work to expose security vulnerabilities of some of the biggest companies in the world, was among those able to correctly identify the human voice. The natural inflection and breathing in the clips were the give-away, he says. Listening for the accentuation, or emphasis, words are given in a sentence can be a good trick for spotting computer-generated speech, agrees Harrington. This is because humans use accentuation to give a sentence more meaning within the context of a dialogue. "For example, a sentence like 'Marianna made the marmalade' typically has most emphasis on the first and last words if read as an individual sentence devoid of context," he says. But if someone asked if Marianna bought the marmalade, the emphasis might instead fall on the word "made" in the answer. Intonation – the change in pitch of the voice across a sentence – can also change the same words from being a statement ("Marianne made the marmalade"), into a question ("Marianne made the marmalade?").Phrasing is also an important factor. The way a sentence is broken up can also alter its meaning. The sentence "when danger threatens, children call the police", has a very different meaning from "when danger threatens children, call the police", Harrington explains. Together these three elements of speech are known as sentence-level prosody. It is "one of the ways computer-generated speech has been quite poor and not very human like", says Harrington. But as the technology develops, AI is growing more adept at replicating these aspects of speech too. "If you think about it, this is the worst the technology is ever going to be," says Sherrets. "Even something that is 60% as good is still pretty powerful. It's only going to get cheaper, faster, better from here." He and many of the people we spoke to are particularly worried about voice cloning. It is a very real threat for businesses, for example. Assaf Rappaport, chief executive at Wiz, a leading cybersecurity company, told an audience at a technology conference in October that someone had created a voice clone of him from one of his recent talks. They then used it to send a deepfake voice message to dozens of employees in an attempt to steal credentials. The scammers were unsuccessful, but the incident was a wakeup call. In another example, a school principal received death threats after a fake audio clip appeared to show him making deeply offensive remarks. Other cases have seen family members scammed out of money in phone calls using voice clones of their loved ones. Sherrets advises developing other ways of authenticating that you really are speaking to the person you think you are. "At home this means deciding on family passwords," he says. "At work this means not making a wire transfer just because you got a voice message from the chief executive officer of your company." You can also ask personal questions, such as their favourite song. But perhaps the best thing to do if you suspect an AI is impersonating someone you know is to say you will call them back. Call them on the number you have for them and don't panic.Michael McNerney is senior vice president of security at cyber risk insurance firm, Resilience, which covers attacks like "spear fishing" where employees are duped into wire transferring money with deepfake audio. He too correctly guessed which voice was AI and which was human in our "Alice in Wonderland" challenge.As he listened to the samples, he found himself asking: Is that real breathing or fake breathing? Were there any mistakes being made? Was it too bright, too perfect? Stumbling over words and taking breaths are very human, so if things are too perfect, it can actually be a sign that AI is faking it. But McNerney says even here, the technology is sounding more and more human. "These are super hard to tell," he says.Listening to our two pairs of audio clips, Harrington and his colleagues at the University of Munich's Institute of Phonetics also struggled to tell the AI voices apart when listening by ear. They pointed to a number of features that should have helped them identify the human speech. Variations in the rate of speech are often an apparent giveaway of a human voice, but in fact the AI voice seemed to produce this more than the human in our examples.Breath intakes too should also be another tell-tale sign. A few of those we played the clips to identified something off about the breathing in both sets of clips. Harrington and his colleagues also said they found he breath intakes in one of the "Alice in Wonderland" clips almost too regular for their liking. But it turned out to be the human sample. The fact that many of the experts we spoke to for this article struggled to tell the AI and human voices apart should not be seen as a failure in their abilities. Rather it is a sign of just how good at imitating human voices AI has now become. It is something that could have some worrying implications, says Harrington. "I'm amazed at how the AI voices knew where to put false stats and hesitations, assuming they were not typed in by someone at the keyboard," he says. "The ability for AI to communicate, in speech, ideas from an individual that might be completely at odds with the individual's real views is now complete," he says. "That's the bit I find quite scary."There could, however, be another way of telling a human from an AI voice, Harrington says. He suggests using something known as prosodic deaccenting. Take the example below: Question: Has John read "Hard Times" yet? Answer: John doesn't LIKE Dickens. The emphasis on the verb in the answer signals that the person replying understands that Dickens is the author of the novel, "Hard Times". "The synthesis of these types of dialogue with a natural prosody might still be quite hard for many AI systems because it requires a knowledge of the world that goes well beyond the words printed on the page," says Harrington.But even this sort of test could soon be overcome by large language models drawing on large datasets from the internet as it trains itself to speak more human. "It would be really interesting to find out at some stage if AI gets that right as well," Harrington adds. Mainstream services such as ChatGPT's voice function can already laugh, whisper, be interrupted and then continue what it was saying. It can also remember everything you ever told it. Perhaps in the search to find out if you are speaking to a human, the solution is simple – spend more time meeting face to face When asked what safeguards were in place to ensure its AI would disclose that it is AI while conversing with humans, OpenAI – the developers of ChatGPT – said there were none. It also said it was not planning to "watermark" AI to identify it because of the potential for bias against its users. This could include groups of impaired speakers using ChatGPT to communicate or it could include students using ChatGPT to help with homework. However, OpenAI says it is actively trying to block voice cloning as ChatGPT's advanced features roll out. "We work to prevent our synthetic voices from copying the voices of real people," ChatGPT multimodal product lead Jackie Shannon tells the BBC. "For Advanced Voice, in particular, we only allow the model to use the preset voices." These include two British-sounding and seven American-sounding voices, split between gender.There are a couple of other tricks you could try if you have any doubts that the voice you are conversing with might not be human. You could, for example, ask it to scream. Many of AI-voice systems struggle to speak outside the normal vocal range, unless they have been specifically trained to, said Nicoletti. I asked ChatGPT to shout and it told me it couldn't. The flaws in human speech could be another give away, says Grennan. Correcting oneself and doubling back on one's thoughts, is a very human thing to do. It's unlikely you'll ever hear ChatGPT say, "Uh nevermind!" or "You know what!?" There are also moves to make deepfake detection software more readily available to consumers. McAfee, for example, has partnered with Dell, HP, Lenovo, Samsung, Acer and Asus to pre-install their solution on AI enabled PCs. The company is also expecting to roll out its software to mobile devices in the near future, according to Grobman. ElevenLabs – which is the maker of the tool that was used to create the AI voice clones in our "Alice in Wonderland" challenge – also offers a free AI detection tool to help people identify if its software has been used to create a piece of audio. But in the inevitable arms race between AI generation and AI detection, we may find new value in something we have lost in our increasingly virtually connected world – physical interaction. Perhaps in the search to find out if you are speaking to a human, the solution is simple – spend more time meeting face to face. For those of you still puzzling over which of our audio clips was real, we can reveal that the first clip was AI while the second was human. Were you able to guess correctly? Source : https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20241122-ai-deepfakes-is-there-something-special-about-the-human-voice


Type:Technology
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From eyesore to asset: How a smelly seaweed could fuel cars
Catagory:Reading
Author:
Posted Date:11/25/2024
Posted By:utopia online

When large swathes of invasive seaweed started washing up on Caribbean beaches in 2011, local residents were perplexed. Soon, mounds of unsightly sargassum – carried by currents from the Sargasso Sea and linked to climate change – were carpeting the region’s prized coastlines, repelling holidaymakers with the pungent stench emitted as it rots. Precisely how to tackle it was a dilemma of unprecedented proportions for the tiny tourism-reliant islands with limited resources. In 2018, Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley declared sargassum a national emergency. Now, a pioneering group of Caribbean scientists and environmentalists hope to turn the tide on the problem by transforming the troublesome algae into a lucrative biofuel.They recently launched the world’s first vehicle powered by bio-compressed natural gas. The innovative fuel source created at the University of the West Indies (UWI) in Barbados also uses wastewater from local rum distilleries, and dung from the island’s indigenous blackbelly sheep which provides the vital anaerobic bacteria. The team says any car can be converted to run on the gas via a simple and affordable four-hour installation process, using an easily available kit, at a total cost of around $2,500 (£1,940). Researchers had initially looked into using sugarcane to reduce reliance on costly, imported fossil fuels and help steer the Caribbean towards its ultimate target of zero emissions. However, despite Barbados being one of few islands still producing sugarcane, the quantity was deemed insufficient for the team’s ambitious goals, explains the project’s founder Dr Legena Henry.Sargassum on the other hand, she grimaces, is something “we will never run out of”. “Tourism has suffered a lot from the seaweed; hotels have been spending millions on tackling it. It’s caused a crisis,” Dr Henry, a renewable energy expert and UWI lecturer, continues. The idea that it could have a valuable purpose was suggested by one of her students, Brittney McKenzie, who had observed the volume of trucks being deployed to transport sargassum from Barbados’ beaches. “We’d just spent three weeks researching sugarcane. But I looked at Brittney’s face and she was so excited, I couldn’t break her heart,” Dr Henry recalls. “We already had rum distillery waste water so we decided to put that with sargassum and see what happened.” Brittney was tasked with collecting seaweed from beaches and setting up small scale bioreactors to conduct preliminary research. “Within just two weeks we got pretty good results,” Brittney tells the BBC. “It was turning into something even bigger than we initially thought.” The team filed a patent on their formula and, in 2019, presented their project to potential investors during a side meeting at the UN General Assembly in New York. Upon touchdown back in Barbados, Dr Henry’s phone was “buzzing” with messages of congratulation – including one from US non-profit Blue Chip Foundation offering $100,000 to get the work off the ground. Biologist Shamika Spencer was hired to experiment with differing amounts of sargassum and waste water to figure out which combination produced the most biogas.She says she leapt at the chance to take part. “Sargassum has been plaguing the region for several years,” Ms Spencer, who is from Antigua and Barbuda, explains. “I had always wondered about this new seaweed ruining the beaches in Antigua, and when I came to Barbados to study I noticed it here too.” The algae do not just threaten tourism. They also pose a threat to human health through the hydrogen sulphide they release as they decomposes, along with native wildlife like critically endangered sea turtle hatchlings which get trapped in thick mats of beached seaweed. Water pollution and warming seas are credited with the upsurge in sargassum, another cataclysmic result of climate change that the Caribbean has done little to contribute to but often bears the brunt of. Calls for eco reparations from leaders including Barbados' leader Mia Mottley and Antigua’s Prime Minister Gaston Browne have been clamorous in recent years as the region battles ever-rising sea levels and worsening storms. While waiting for those to bear fruit, this project represents one example of the Caribbean taking its environmental future into its own hands. “I realised it was important that after removing the sargassum from beaches, it doesn’t just go to landfills,” Ms Spencer continues. “By repurposing it in vehicles you protect tourism and prevent people from inhaling it. When we scale up to fuel more vehicles it will require a very large volume.” Watching the successful test drive of a biogas-charged Nissan Leaf – supplied by the Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency – was utterly exhilarating, smiles Dr Henry. The MIT-educated mechanical engineer knew she was risking her reputation should the venture fail. “We didn’t sleep the night before the test drive event,” she admits. “I was putting my whole life’s work on the line.” Dr Henry and her husband, career data scientist Nigel Henry, created deep tech firm Rum and Sargassum Inc and are on a mission to change the face of energy production in the Caribbean. Both are originally from leading oil producer Trinidad, studied in the US and were determined to bring their skills back home. “My goal is to help build up this region,” Dr Henry says. “We are now setting up a four-car pilot to demonstrate real life working prototypes to convince funders that this is workable and scalable.” She estimates it will cost around $2m to display initial commercial activity and $7.5m to reach the point where the company is able to sell gas to 300 taxis in Barbados. Potential funders include the US Agency for Internationals Development, the European Union and international development banks through debt financing. The team plans to expand its work by setting up a biogas station to replace its small existing facility. UWI hopes to introduce other sargassum-based innovations too, such as pest control products. Ms Spencer says it’s been "heart-warming” to witness the results of the team’s research. “Just seeing the actual potential is motivating me to keep working,” she adds.As for Brittney, five years after her eureka moment, she says she’s still “pinching” herself. “To see the car in action was mind-blowing,” she grins. “I would encourage all young scientists to press ahead with their ideas. You never know when you might make the next big discovery.” “It’s taken years of work, plenty of grit and pushing against walls to reach this point,” Dr Henry concurs. “It’s an example of UWI innovation and is exportable to the wider world, because it’s not just the Caribbean that’s affected; sargassum also impacts parts of West Africa, South America and Florida. “These small islands have created technology that can benefit the rest of the world; this is a big win for the Caribbean.”


Type:Social
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Far-right candidate takes shock lead in Romania presidential election
Catagory:News
Author:
Posted Date:11/25/2024
Posted By:utopia online

A far-right, pro-Russia candidate has taken a surprise lead in the first round of Romania's presidential election, with preliminary results putting his pro-Europe rival in close second. With 96% of votes counted, ultranationalist Calin Georgescu was on 22%, and Marcel Ciolacu, the prime minister, had 20%, according to the Central Electoral Bureau. The strong showing of Georgescu, who has no party of his own, and campaigned largely on the social media platform TikTok, came as the biggest surprise of the election. He is now on track to join Ciolacu in a final run-off for the presidency on 8 December. That would pose a dilemma for the millions of Romanians who voted for other candidates. One option would be to rally round populist Social Democrat Ciolacu, an establishment figure who would continue Romania’s pro-western path. Backing Georgescu, who has promised to Romania’s sovereignty, is the alternative. Georgescu, who belongs to no party, has also sworn to end what he calls subservience to the European Union and Nato, especially on support for Ukraine. He has condemned the Nato ballistic missile defence shield in Deveselu, Romania. The final result of this round will be known later on Monday, when votes from the capital Bucharest and from the large Romanian diaspora are counted. Campaigning focused largely on the soaring cost of living, with Romania having the EU's biggest share of people at risk of poverty. Exit polls released earlier on Sunday suggested that Ciolacu had a commanding lead, and projected the centre-right candidate, Elena Lasconi, would take second place. The current tally, however, puts Lasconi in third on 18%, and another nationalist, George Simion, in fourth. The president in Romania has a largely symbolic role but considerable influence on areas such as foreign policy. Turnout was 51%, similar to the figure five years ago.


Type:Social
👁 :63
The Father of Television
Catagory:Biography
Author:
Posted Date:11/23/2024
Posted By:utopia online

John Logie Baird (born Aug. 13, 1888, Helensburgh, Dunbarton, Scot.—died June 14, 1946, Bexhill-on-Sea, Sussex, Eng.) was a Scottish engineer, the first man to televise pictures of objects in motion. Born in Helensburgh on the west coast of Scotland, John was the fourth and youngest child of the Rev John and Jessie Baird. He showed early signs of ingenuity by setting up a telephone exchange to connect his house to those of his friends nearby. His first interest in television came in 1903 after he read a German book on the photoelectric properties of selenium. Work in wartime Baird graduated from the Royal Technical College in Glasgow – now Strathclyde University – soon after the outbreak of the First World War. Because of chronic ill-health, which was to plague him throughout his life, he was not accepted for military service. For a short time he worked for the Clyde Valley Electrical Power Company, before starting a small business manufacturing and marketing a water-absorbent sock. He then decided to move abroad. Experimentation with television Baird returned to Britain in September 1920, and after a brief spell in business in London, he started to experiment with television. In Hastings in 1924 he transmitted the image of a Maltese cross over the distance of 10 feet. Baird's first public demonstration of television was in 1925, in Selfridge's shop in London. The breakthrough came in October 1925 when Baird achieved television pictures with light and shade (half-tones), making them much clearer. He demonstrated these to invited members of the Royal Institution in January 1926. The pictures measured only 3.5 x 2 inches. television (TV), a form of mass media based on the electronic delivery of moving images and sound from a source to a receiver. By extending the senses of vision and hearing beyond the limits of physical distance, television has had a considerable influence on society. Conceived in the early 20th century as a possible medium for education and interpersonal communication, it became by mid-century a vibrant broadcast medium, using the model of broadcast radio to bring news and entertainment to people all over the world. Television is now delivered in a variety of ways: “over the air” by terrestrial radio waves (traditional broadcast TV); along coaxial cables (cable TV); reflected off of satellites held in geostationary Earth orbit (direct broadcast satellite, or DBS, TV); streamed through the Internet; and recorded optically on digital video discs (DVDs) and Blu-ray discs. First public demonstrations Baird gave the first public demonstration of moving silhouette images by television at Selfridge’s department store in London in a three-week series of demonstrations beginning on 25 March 1925. On 26 January 1926, Baird gave the first public demonstration of true television images for members of the Royal Institution and a reporter from The Times in his laboratory at 22 Frith Street in the Soho district of London, where Bar Italia is now located. Baird initially used a scan rate of 5 pictures per second, improving this to 12.5 pictures per second c.1927. It was the first demonstration of a television system that could scan and display live moving images with tonal graduation. Reference https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Logie_Baird https://www.britannica.com/technology/television-technology https://digital.nls.uk/scientists/biographies/john-logie-baird/


Type:Technology
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Woman gets first double lung transplant done by robot
Catagory:News
Author:
Posted Date:11/23/2024
Posted By:utopia online

Cheryl Mehrkar was the recipient of the world's first fully robotic double lung transplant on 22 October at NYU Langone Health Center in Manhattan. Mehrkar, who is a medic, had suffered with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for a decade that became more severe when she experienced a bout of Covid. She had spent years researching for a solution before becoming eligible for this procedure. The technique builds on minimally invasive surgeries and aims to reduce hospital stays as well as speed up recovery periods. Almost a month after the surgery, Mehrkar is now days from being released from hospital. Reference https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cq8vkl18kq1o


Type:Technology
👁 :73
Monster in Atlantic Ocean
Catagory: History
Author:
Posted Date:11/23/2024
Posted By:utopia online

The famous Bermuda Triangle and all the ocean mysteries surrounding it… You must have heard of it at least once? And perhaps you have an opinion on the cause of all the ships that have mysteriously disappeared there? The Bermuda Triangle is a geographical area in the Atlantic Ocean that combines Bermuda, Florida, and Puerto Rico. It is one of the best unsolved mysteries of the world. Since the nineteenth century, many strange stories and rumors have been circulating about this part of the world: unexplained disappearances of cargo ships and planes, many without a trace. Some of the earliest reports of strange sightings date back to Christopher Columbus! However, the story of the Bermuda Triangle came to the forefront in the 20th century when the Navy cargo ship USS Cyclops, with more than 300 people on board, went missing inside the Bermuda Triangle. Victim of Bermuda Triangle The Mary Celeste Possibly one of the most mysterious stories of shipwrecks, this ship is a tale of its own. Despite being found adrift in some other location in the Atlantic Ocean, the connection to the Bermuda Triangle had been somehow invoked to find an answer to the mystery of its fate. Discovered on 4 December 1872 with everything right except for the entire crew, the ship was found stranded in the sea days after starting its journey from New York to Genoa, Italy. There were seven crew members and Captain Benjamin Briggs, his wife, and their two-year-old daughter aboard the vessel, loaded with raw alcohol. But days later, a passing British ship called Dei Gratia found Mary Celeste under partial sail in the Atlantic, off the Azores Islands. The ship was unmanned, with no crew abroad, and the lifeboat was also missing.It was also found that nine of the barrels in the cargo were empty, and a sword was on the deck. No trace of the people aboard the vessel or the missing lifeboat has ever been found. Studies of the ship ruled out the possibility of a pirate attack since everything on this ship, including the barrels of alcohol it was transporting and the crew’s valuable belongings were intact. Theories surrounding the mystery of Mary Celeste also included criminal conspiracy, alien abduction, and even an attack by a giant squid. The possibility of a natural disaster was also on the list. Many suggested the role of an undersea earthquake behind the accident, while few proposed an accidental foraying of the vessel into the Bermuda Triangle. However, as much as these speculations seem reasonable, they don’t fit. After all, why would a perfectly skilled crew on a good weather day, with their ship entirely uncompromised, abandon it and then never surface again? USS Cyclops The disappearance of the USS Cyclops, one of the Navy’s biggest fuel ships, marks the largest loss of life in the history of the US Navy. In March 1918, this massive ship sailed from Brazil to Baltimore through the Bermuda Triangle. It was carrying 10,800 tons of manganese ore and 309 crew members. Setting off on a good day, the ship’s first and only message indicated no troubles. However, the ship was never heard from again. The entire area was searched, but nothing was ever found. No remains of the ship or any crew members have been found. The captain of the USS Cyclops never sent a distress signal, and no one responded to radio calls from other vessels. The naval investigators also failed to find a definite cause for its disappearance. Due to its mysterious disappearance, Cyclops is among the 100 ships and planes that have vanished under strange circumstances in the Bermuda Triangle. Reference https://www.marineinsight.com/maritime-history/5-famous-mysterious-stories-of-the-bermuda-triangle/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bermuda_Triangle


Type:Science
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What we know about Russia's Oreshnik missile
Catagory:News
Author:
Posted Date:11/23/2024
Posted By:utopia online

On Thursday, the Ukrainian city of Dnipro was hit by a Russian air strike which eyewitnesses described as unusual, triggering explosions that went on for three hours. The attack included a strike by a missile so powerful that in the aftermath Ukrainian officials said it bore the characteristics of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Western officials were quick to deny this, saying that such a strike would have triggered a nuclear alert in the US. Hours after the strike, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a TV address, said that Russia had launched a "new conventional intermediate-range" missile with the codename Oreshnik, meaning hazel tree in Russian. Putin said that the weapon travelled at a speed of Mach 10, or 2.5-3km per second (10 times the speed of sound), adding that "there are currently no ways of counteracting this weapon". He said that a major military-industrial site in Dnipro, used to manufacture missiles and other armaments, had been hit. He described the attack as a test which was "successful" because the "target was reached". Speaking a day later to senior defence officials, he said tests of the missile would continue, "including in combat conditions". Putin's description of the weapon notwithstanding, there seems to be no clear consensus about what it actually is. Ukrainian military intelligence maintains that the missile is a new type of ICBM known as Kedr (cedar). They say it was travelling at Mach 11 and took 15 minutes to arrive from the launch site, more than 1,000km (620 miles) away in the Astrakhan region of Russia. They said the missile was equipped with six warheads, each with six sub-munitions. This assumption is backed up by BBC Verify's examination of video footage of the strike. Most of it is blurry or of poor quality, but it clearly shows six flashes against the night sky, each comprised of a cluster of six individual projectiles. The location that was hit is an industrial area to the southwest of Dnipro city.Why is speed important? If Putin's description is correct, the missile is at the upper edge of the definition of hypersonic, and few things can achieve this. Speed is important because the faster a missile travels, the quicker it gets to target. The quicker it gets to target, the less time a defending military has to react. A ballistic missile generally gets to target by following an arcing path up into the atmosphere and a similar one down towards its destination. But as it descends, it picks up speed and gains kinetic energy, and more kinetic energy gives it more options. This allows it to manoeuvre down towards the target - by performing some kind of defending wriggle - that makes interception by surface-to-air missile systems (such as Ukraine's US-built Patriot defence missile system) particularly difficult. This is not new for militaries that have to defend against such threats of course, but the greater the speed, the harder it becomes. That is why Putin has likely placed emphasis on its speed in announcing this new type of missile. Some 80% of the missiles fired by Russia have been intercepted by Ukraine, an extraordinary figure. But these faster speeds of ballistic missiles are intended to try to bring that percentage down.What is the new missile's range? Russian military expert Ilya Kramnik told the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestiya it is likely that the new missile, whose development has been classified until now, is at the upper end of medium-range missiles. 'It is likely that we are dealing with a new generation of Russian intermediate-range missiles [with a range of] 2,500-3,000km (1,550-1,860 miles) and potentially extending to 5,000km (3,100 miles), but not intercontinental," he says. This could put almost the whole of Europe within range, but not the US. "It is obviously equipped with a separating warhead with individual guidance units," Kramnik added. He suggested that it could be a reduced version of the Yars-M missile complex, which is an ICBM. Russia was reported to have started production of a new version of this missile complex last year which included much more mobile independent warheads. Another expert, Dmitry Kornev, told the paper the Oreshnik could have been created on the basis of the shorter-range Iskander missiles - already commonly used on Ukraine - but with a new-generation engine. An Iskander with an enlarged engine was used at the Kapustin Yar test site in southern Russia last spring, he said, adding that this may well have been the Oreshnik. Thursday's missile was fired into Ukraine from the same site. How effective could it be? Military analyst Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestiya that the Oreshnik was capable of overcoming any existing modern missile defence systems. It could also destroy well-protected bunkers at great depths without using a nuclear warhead, he said, although there is no evidence of underground facilities being destroyed at the Dnipro plant. Another Russian analyst, Igor Korotchenko, told Tass news agency the missile had multiple independently guided warheads, adding that the "practically simultaneous arrival of the warheads at the target" was extremely effective. Justin Crump, CEO and founder of the risk advisory company Sibylline, told BBC Verify that the missile had the capacity to seriously challenge Ukraine's air defences. "Russia’s short range ballistic missiles have been one of the more potent threats to Ukraine in this conflict," he said. "Faster, more advanced systems would increase that an order of magnitude."


Type:Technology
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New weapons and nuclear threats: A week of change in Ukraine war
Catagory:News
Author:
Posted Date:11/23/2024
Posted By:utopia online

The stakes have never been higher in the Ukraine-Russia war. In the week that saw the conflict pass its 1000th day, Western powers substantially boosted Ukraine's military arsenal - and the Kremlin made its loudest threats yet of a nuclear strike. Here is how the last week played out - and what it means. The West bolsters Ukraine Late on Sunday night, reports emerged that outgoing US President Joe Biden had given Ukraine permission to use longer-range ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia. The move marked a major policy change by Washington - which for months had refused Ukraine’s requests to use the missiles beyond its own borders. After the decision was leaked to the press, a volley of ATACMS missiles were fired by Ukraine into Russia’s Bryansk region. The Kremlin said six were fired, with five intercepted, while anonymous US officials claimed it was eight, with two intercepted. Whatever the specifics, this was a landmark moment: American-made missiles had struck Russian soil for the first time in this war. Then on Wednesday, Ukraine launched UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Russia’s Kursk region - where Ukrainian troops have seized a roughly 600-sq km (232 sq mile) patch of Russian territory. Later in the week, Biden added the final element of a ramped-up weapons arsenal to Ukraine by approving the use of anti-personnel landmines. Simple, controversial, but highly-effective, landmines are a crucial part of Ukraine’s defences on the eastern frontline - and it is hoped their use could help slow Russia's advance. With three swift decisions, over a few seismic days, the West signalled to the world that its support for Ukraine was not about to vanish.Russia raises nuclear stakes If Ukraine’s western allies raised the stakes this week - so too did Moscow. On Tuesday, the 1000th day of the war, Putin pushed through changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. The doctrine now says an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault on Russia. The Kremlin then took its response a step further by deploying a new type of missile - "Oreshnik" - to strike the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Putin claimed it travelled at 10 times the speed of sound - and that there are "no ways of counteracting this weapon". Most observers agree the strike was designed to send a warning: that Russia could, if it chose, use the new missile to deliver a nuclear weapon.Such posturing would once have caused serious concern in the West. Now, not so much. Since the start of the conflict nearly three years ago, Putin has repeatedly laid out nuclear "red lines’" which the West has repeatedly crossed. It seems many have become used to Russia’s nuclear “sabre-rattling”. And why else do Western leaders feel ready to gamble with Russia’s nuclear threats? China. Beijing has become a vital partner for Moscow in its efforts to soften the impact of sanctions imposed by the US and other countries. China, the West believes, would react with horror at the use of nuclear weapons - thus discouraging Putin from making true on his threats. What we know about Russia's Oreshnik missile A global conflict? In a rare televised address on Thursday evening, the Russian president warned that the war had "acquired elements of a global character". That assessment was echoed by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who said "the threat is serious and real when it comes to global conflict". The US and UK are now more deeply involved than ever - while the deployment of North Korean troops to fight alongside Russia saw another nuclear power enter the war. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said on Thursday that "never before" has the threat of a nuclear war been greater, blaming the US for its "aggressive and hostile" policy towards Pyongyang.Biden out, Trump in So, why are we seeing these developments now? The likely reason is the impending arrival of US President-elect Donald Trump, who will officially enter the White House on 20 January. While on the campaign trail, Trump vowed to end the war within “24 hours”. Those around him, like Vice President-elect JD Vance, have signalled that will mean compromises for Ukraine, likely in the form of giving up territory in the Donbas and Crimea. That goes against the apparent stance of the Biden administration - whose decisions this week point to a desire to get as much aid through the door as possible before Trump enters office. But some are more bullish about Ukraine’s prospects with Trump in power.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said himself Kyiv would like to end the war through “diplomatic means” in 2025. Former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told the BBC this week: “President Trump will undoubtedly be driven by one goal, to project his strength, his leadership... And show that he is capable of fixing problems which his predecessor failed to fix.” “As much as the fall of Afghanistan inflicted a severe wound on the foreign policy reputation of the Biden administration, if the scenario you mentioned is to be entertained by President Trump, Ukraine will become his Afghanistan, with equal consequences." “And I don’t think this is what he’s looking for.” This week's developments may not be the start of the war escalating out of control - but the start of a tussle for the strongest negotiating position in potential future talks to end it.


Type:Social

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